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2015 Great Lakes Hurricane Season (YpsiRuss)
The 2015 Great Lakes Hurricane Season was a below average season after averages were made and determined in the later 2016 season. The season produced 5 depressions, 4 storms, 2 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane. Unlike the 2016 season, this season was not recognized by the NHC and put into databases until before the start of the 2016 season. All storms in the 2015 season were given numbers after the NHC recognized the storms as tropical. Season Predictions Due to the Great Lakes not being recognized as an official hurricane basin at the time, no predictions were made for this season. Season Summary The 2015 season started early, with Tropical Depression 1 forming on May 29th. TD 1, which formed on May 29th. Tropical Depression 1 brought heavy rainfall and some flooding to parts of Canada. After Tropical Depression 1 dissipated in late May, Tropical Storm 2 formed on June 29th. Tropical Storm 2 originated from a bow echo that came from a larger storm system. The storm system was being tracked as a bow echo and derecho throughout the whole event. The storm made landfall near Saugatuck, Michigan as a 60 MPH tropical storm before slightly weakening to a 50 MPH tropical storm, turning west and making landfall in Chicago. List Of Storms Tropical Depression 1 An area of thunderstorms developed on May 29th, which quickly organized into Tropical Depression 1, just 3 days before the official start of hurricane season. It was seen by local forecasters and the NHC just as a normal area of thunderstorms in the Great Lakes region. Tropical Depression 1 would not last long, however. Tropical Depression 1 made landfall in Canada on May 30th, bringing with it strong to severe thunderstorms, which produced torrential rainfalls. Later on May 30th, rainbands associated with Tropical Depression 1 began to rapidly diminish and eventually dissipated into a small thunderstorm cluster which eventually got absorbed into a bigger storm system. Damage from Tropical Depression 1 was minimal despite the heavy rainfall. Tropical Storm 2 A bow echo containing severe thunderstorms moved in to the Green Bay area on June 29th, which prompted tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings for the area. The center weakened before it gained tropical characteristics over land even though it was still labeled as a bow echo. The system rapidly became a tropical storm later that day. Forecasters continued to track Tropical Storm 2 as a bow echo storm complex but then noticed the unusual behavior of the complex. They saw the complex trying to turn southward as thunderstorms wrapped around the center of low pressure, along with the forecasters starting to notice that the storm had some characteristics of a tropical cyclone. Despite these characteristics, the NHC still denied that the complex was tropical and late on July 30th, Tropical Storm 2 made landfall Saugatuck, Michigan, with sustained winds around 60 MPH. Despite landfall, no weakening occurred over land and it maintained its intensity until it started to turn westward towards Chicago, where it weakened slightly to a 50 MPH tropical storm. Tropical Storm 2 maintained winds of 50 MPH until it made landfall in Chicago on July 2nd. The storm started to diminish rapidly after landfall and became a remnant low-pressure area and got absorbed into the main storm system that Tropical Storm 2 originally came from. Overall, damage from Tropical Storm 2 has been put at $120 million. Hurricane 3 An area of thunderstorms developed in Lake Superior during the predawn hours of September 1st, which quickly organized into Tropical Depression 3. The storm would strengthen quickly throughout the day to become Tropical Storm 3. Tropical Storm 3 then made landfall Southwest of Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan as a 45 MPH tropical storm. The storm then moved into Lake Huron and started to intensify more. Late on September 2nd, it became a Category 1 hurricane, with winds of 75 MPH. The next day, Hurricane 3 intensified further to reach a peak intensity of 90 mph and made landfall later that day. The storm moved further inland before dissipating on September 4th. Hurricane 3 is believed to be responsible for $250 million in damages, and produced as much as 35 inches of rain in some areas, which caused major river and stream flooding. Hurricane 4 A weakening derecho moved off the East Coast of Michigan on October 6th, with sustained winds at 35 MPH. As it moved over the lake, its forward speed began to slow down as a broad circulation began to develop. Forecasters thought it was the derecho re-intensifying, but it was found out later in 2016 that it was the derecho's low-pressure area becoming warm-core and transitioning to become a tropical cyclone. With that, Tropical Depression 4 formed on October 6th. Tropical Depression 4 continued to slowly move away from the East Coast of Lake Michigan as it started to gain more strength, strengthening into a 40 MPH tropical storm by noon on October 6th. Tropical Storm 4 then started to turn more to the Northeast slowly, as it started to intensify rapidly. By 11 PM that night, Tropical Storm 4 became Hurricane 4 as it hit winds of 75 MPH. Early the next day, the storm was already a Category 2 hurricane, and forecasters were starting to note the unusual behavior of the derecho, considering its slow movement and very close resemblance to a tropical cyclone. A PDS Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for the Western Counties of Michigan until 6 AM on October 8th. The watch message stated that due to the unpredictability of this unusual storm complex, the watch could be extended or shortened at any time. A Storm Warning was also issued for the waters of Lake Michigan, along with a Special Marine Warning. By noon on October 7th, winds were estimated by Doppler radar near the core near 120 MPH, making Hurricane 4 a Category 3 major hurricane. The storm then started to turn more Southeast as it intensified into a Category 4 hurricane. By this point, Severe Thunderstorm Warnings were dominating the Western counties of Michigan, along with Lakeshore Flood Warnings. The storm reached its peak early on October 8th while it continued south, weakening. The storm made landfall as a 120 MPH Category 3 hurricane on October 8th near South Haven, Michigan. The storm continued to weaken rapidly as it slowly moved inland, dissipating on October 9th. Hurricane 4 caused over $1.4 billion in damages and killed 30 people. This storm showed people that Great Lakes storms were starting to get unusual and that these storms could actually be tropical cyclones. Tropical Storm 5 A storm system over Canada went into the Great Lakes region on November 13th. The storm system proceeded to spawn a mesoscale convective system over Lake Michigan, which did not gain tropical characteristics there. As the MCV moved over Michigan, it strengthened to have winds equivalent to a Category 2 hurricane, at 100 to 105 mph and had a peak intensity of 973 millibars, the strongest the system was overall. The MCV then started to weaken after producing significant wind damage and power outages in Southeast Michigan. It weakened to 70 MPH tropical storm intensity and moved over the waters of Lake Erie. The storm quickly transitioned to a tropical storm shortly after moving into Lake Erie late on November 14th. The storm held a steady intensity overall as a 70 MPH tropical storm throughout the days over the lake. On November 17th, Tropical Storm 5 was nearing Buffalo, New York and producing anywhere from heavy snow to heavy rain, and winds sustained at 70 MPH, gusting to 75 to 85 MPH. The NWS in Buffalo noted the unusual behavior of this storm system, stating that it "acted like a tropical cyclone" in some ways. Before landfall, a surface pressure of 992 millibars was recorded, being the peak intensity of this system as a tropical cyclone. Shortly after that observation, Tropical Storm 5 made landfall as a 70 MPH strong tropical storm. After landfall, the storm started to diminish as rain and snow bands started to rapidly diminish and weaken in intensity as the precipitation moved further inland. On November 18th, the system was no longer tropical and got absorbed into a winter storm system. Storm Names Due to the season not being recognized by the NHC in 2015, the storms from this season were given numbers instead of names when it was officially recognized as a hurricane season in 2016. (U = Unused) Season Effects Category:Great Lakes Season Category:Great Lakes Seasons